Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
Implied probability 72%−10
24-hour volume$45
Total volume$31k
Liquidity$202
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 72% |
| 26 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Sept, 12:22 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Sept, 09:49 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Sept, 06:40 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Sept, 03:53 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Sept, 03:23 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Sept, 02:17 UTC | 74% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Sept, 00:25 UTC | 74% |
| 25 Sept, 23:22 UTC | 73% |
| 25 Sept, 22:54 UTC | 76% |
| 25 Sept, 22:09 UTC | 75% |
| 25 Sept, 21:55 UTC | 75% |
| 25 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 76% |
| 25 Sept, 20:18 UTC | 75% |
| 25 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 75% |
| 25 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 75% |
| 25 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 74% |
| 25 Sept, 18:29 UTC | 75% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 74% |
| 25 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 74% |
| 25 Sept, 16:58 UTC | 74% |
| 25 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 78% |
| 25 Sept, 15:57 UTC | 79% |
| 25 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 82% |
| 25 Sept, 09:17 UTC | 81% |
| 24 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 81% |
| 23 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 72% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a new Gemini Pro model appears on the Humanity’s Last Exam website with an HLE Accuracy of 50% or higher by noon Eastern Time the day after it is first listed. The resolution depends solely on the percentage shown in the official result card, ignoring calibration error or other metrics.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 72%
- No 28%
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