Israel military action against Lebanon on September 28?
The market favoured Yes at 92% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$26k
Liquidity$5k
Resolved28 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 28 Sept, 12:40 UTC | 100% |
| 28 Sept, 12:11 UTC | 98% |
| 28 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 98% |
| 28 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 97% |
| 28 Sept, 10:53 UTC | 97% |
| 28 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 97% |
| 28 Sept, 09:26 UTC | 97% |
| 28 Sept, 08:55 UTC | 97% |
| 28 Sept, 08:17 UTC | 97% |
| 28 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 97% |
| 28 Sept, 06:59 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 95% |
| 28 Sept, 05:03 UTC | 92% |
| 28 Sept, 04:53 UTC | 91% |
| 28 Sept, 04:07 UTC | 91% |
| 28 Sept, 03:50 UTC | 91% |
| 28 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 91% |
| 28 Sept, 01:43 UTC | 92% |
| 28 Sept, 01:28 UTC | 92% |
| 28 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 91% |
| 28 Sept, 00:22 UTC | 91% |
| 27 Sept, 23:44 UTC | 91% |
| 27 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 91% |
| 27 Sept, 20:29 UTC | 90% |
| 27 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 86% |
| 27 Sept, 08:29 UTC | 85% |
| 27 Sept, 05:36 UTC | 84% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 85% |
| 27 Sept, 02:39 UTC | 85% |
| 27 Sept, 01:41 UTC | 84% |
| 27 Sept, 01:24 UTC | 84% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Sept, 23:34 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 84% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 84% |
| 26 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 84% |
| 26 Sept, 18:59 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 65% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 79% |
| 26 Sept, 17:23 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 91% |
| 25 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 85% |
What counts
The market resolves to “Yes” if Israel launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly hits Lebanon’s land or internal waters on September 28 (IDT). It resolves to “No” if no such strike occurs, including cases where munitions are intercepted before impact, only ground forces move, or threats are announced without execution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →