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Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Resolved: Yes 15d ago

The market favoured Yes at 93% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$29k
Total volume$93k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
0%50%100%100%20 Oct, 05:47 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
23 Oct, 19:57 UTC100%
23 Oct, 19:12 UTC99%
23 Oct, 18:07 UTC99%
23 Oct, 17:53 UTC99%
23 Oct, 15:27 UTC99%
23 Oct, 12:57 UTC100%
23 Oct, 11:27 UTC100%
23 Oct, 10:39 UTC100%
23 Oct, 10:03 UTC97%
23 Oct, 09:55 UTC97%
23 Oct, 09:00 UTC98%
23 Oct, 08:53 UTC98%
23 Oct, 08:21 UTC98%
23 Oct, 07:54 UTC98%
23 Oct, 07:26 UTC92%
23 Oct, 06:46 UTC90%
23 Oct, 06:18 UTC89%
23 Oct, 05:18 UTC92%
23 Oct, 04:57 UTC91%
23 Oct, 02:33 UTC95%
23 Oct, 01:18 UTC92%
23 Oct, 00:36 UTC93%
23 Oct, 00:28 UTC92%
22 Oct, 23:48 UTC92%
22 Oct, 23:27 UTC92%
22 Oct, 21:57 UTC92%
22 Oct, 21:23 UTC93%
22 Oct, 20:40 UTC93%
22 Oct, 20:13 UTC93%
22 Oct, 19:58 UTC93%
22 Oct, 19:23 UTC93%
22 Oct, 18:41 UTC92%
22 Oct, 18:05 UTC93%
22 Oct, 17:45 UTC91%
22 Oct, 16:47 UTC90%
22 Oct, 16:26 UTC90%
22 Oct, 15:57 UTC91%
22 Oct, 15:28 UTC89%
22 Oct, 14:54 UTC89%
22 Oct, 14:24 UTC90%
22 Oct, 13:34 UTC86%
22 Oct, 13:27 UTC85%
22 Oct, 12:36 UTC92%
22 Oct, 12:29 UTC89%
22 Oct, 11:53 UTC90%
22 Oct, 11:15 UTC90%
22 Oct, 10:46 UTC89%
22 Oct, 10:09 UTC87%
22 Oct, 09:54 UTC86%
22 Oct, 08:53 UTC86%
22 Oct, 05:46 UTC88%
22 Oct, 03:02 UTC92%
22 Oct, 00:38 UTC91%
22 Oct, 00:17 UTC91%
21 Oct, 23:49 UTC91%
21 Oct, 23:14 UTC91%
21 Oct, 22:53 UTC91%
21 Oct, 22:24 UTC90%
21 Oct, 21:41 UTC91%
21 Oct, 21:04 UTC90%
21 Oct, 20:57 UTC90%
21 Oct, 20:20 UTC89%
21 Oct, 18:34 UTC83%
21 Oct, 17:20 UTC84%
21 Oct, 16:58 UTC85%
21 Oct, 16:29 UTC86%
21 Oct, 15:46 UTC85%
21 Oct, 15:17 UTC84%
21 Oct, 14:55 UTC83%
21 Oct, 04:04 UTC74%
21 Oct, 03:36 UTC74%
21 Oct, 03:29 UTC74%
20 Oct, 20:31 UTC73%
20 Oct, 19:55 UTC73%
20 Oct, 19:14 UTC72%
20 Oct, 18:24 UTC73%
20 Oct, 17:17 UTC72%
20 Oct, 05:47 UTC72%

What counts

For Yes to resolve, Russia and Ukraine must hold an in-person diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The event must involve authorized representatives acting officially or through authorized mediators, and it must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by credible media consensus.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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