Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?
Implied probability 2%−1
Total volume$38k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 18:21 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 11:47 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 09:41 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 08:34 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 05:44 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 05:22 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 22:04 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 16:02 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 13:31 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 12:04 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 10:48 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 10:16 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 02:44 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 22:30 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 22:08 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 17:06 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 13:47 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 11:16 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 09:46 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 05:32 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 5% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran or a listed proxy physically breaks undersea internet cables before October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. Cyber attacks do not count, and the outcome depends on confirmed physical damage rather than attempted sabotage. Readers often mistake cyber interference for physical damage or miss the specific deadline of 11:59 PM ET.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 99%
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