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Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?

Resolved: No 6d ago

The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$570
Total volume$290k
Liquidity$29k
Resolved1 Nov 2026
How the odds moved · Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?
0%50%100%0%26 Oct, 12:47 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
1 Nov, 08:32 UTC0%
31 Oct, 23:53 UTC0%
31 Oct, 22:57 UTC0%
31 Oct, 21:53 UTC0%
31 Oct, 06:36 UTC0%
31 Oct, 05:26 UTC0%
31 Oct, 04:07 UTC0%
30 Oct, 16:32 UTC1%
30 Oct, 11:24 UTC0%
30 Oct, 07:48 UTC0%
30 Oct, 02:02 UTC0%
30 Oct, 01:41 UTC0%
29 Oct, 08:43 UTC0%
28 Oct, 23:40 UTC1%
28 Oct, 20:17 UTC1%
28 Oct, 15:03 UTC1%
28 Oct, 14:35 UTC1%
28 Oct, 09:10 UTC1%
28 Oct, 08:43 UTC1%
27 Oct, 23:38 UTC1%
27 Oct, 21:47 UTC1%
27 Oct, 21:12 UTC1%
27 Oct, 20:46 UTC1%
27 Oct, 18:19 UTC1%
27 Oct, 17:57 UTC1%
27 Oct, 17:00 UTC1%
27 Oct, 16:37 UTC1%
27 Oct, 15:35 UTC1%
27 Oct, 15:12 UTC1%
27 Oct, 14:14 UTC1%
27 Oct, 13:48 UTC1%
27 Oct, 12:50 UTC1%
27 Oct, 11:22 UTC2%
27 Oct, 10:49 UTC2%
27 Oct, 09:51 UTC2%
27 Oct, 08:54 UTC2%
27 Oct, 02:58 UTC2%
26 Oct, 22:56 UTC2%
26 Oct, 22:15 UTC2%
26 Oct, 19:51 UTC2%
26 Oct, 17:13 UTC2%
26 Oct, 14:47 UTC2%
26 Oct, 14:23 UTC2%
26 Oct, 13:47 UTC2%
26 Oct, 13:06 UTC2%
26 Oct, 12:47 UTC2%

What counts

The market resolves to "Yes" if the US President, White House, Cabinet member, or authorized agency officially announces a prohibition on diesel exports by October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must clearly and unambiguously declare a ban on all or substantially all diesel exports through official channels.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 0%
  • No 100%

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