Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on November 5?
The market favoured Yes at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$59k
Liquidity$0
Resolved6 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 11:41 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 10:24 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 08:37 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 08:21 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 07:59 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 07:24 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 05:42 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 03:58 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 03:08 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 01:28 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 98% |
| 5 Nov, 00:23 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 23:54 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 23:25 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 22:20 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 20:52 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 19:49 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 19:19 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 18:57 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 16:27 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 15:21 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 13:53 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 13:17 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 12:17 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 11:54 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 10:51 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 10:05 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 09:28 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 08:53 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 23:17 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 20:19 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 19:21 UTC | 80% |
| 3 Nov, 18:44 UTC | 80% |
| 3 Nov, 18:13 UTC | 80% |
| 3 Nov, 17:03 UTC | 80% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 16:26 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 14:46 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 14:25 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 13:40 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 13:18 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 12:50 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 12:21 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 11:27 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 10:59 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Nov, 10:22 UTC | 65% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Saudi Arabia, its coalition, or Yemen's recognized government launches an air or surface-to-surface missile strike that hits Yemen on November 5. It resolves to No if no such qualifying strike occurs by the end of that day in Yemen Standard Time. Readers often mistake intercepted missiles or proxy attacks for qualifying events, but neither counts toward a Yes resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →