Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 22%−1
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$468k
Liquidity$44k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 22% |
| 14 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 22% |
| 14 Oct, 12:47 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Oct, 22:15 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Oct, 19:43 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Oct, 12:05 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 22% |
| 10 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 23% |
| 10 Oct, 13:36 UTC | 22% |
| 10 Oct, 02:06 UTC | 20% |
| 10 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 22% |
| 9 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 23% |
| 9 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 24% |
| 9 Oct, 13:44 UTC | 24% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 25% |
| 8 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 24% |
| 8 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 23% |
| 8 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 24% |
| 8 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 22% |
| 8 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 22% |
| 8 Oct, 14:44 UTC | 34% |
| 8 Oct, 09:38 UTC | 33% |
| 8 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Oct, 19:35 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 30% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez stops being Prime Minister at any point before December 31, 2026. This includes his resignation, removal, detention, or permanent prevention from duty. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the effective date, but an early announcement triggers immediate resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 22%
- No 79%
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