Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026?
The market favoured Yes at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$21k
Liquidity$27k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 100% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 100% |
| 3 Nov, 23:10 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Nov, 17:17 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Nov, 04:43 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 99% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if a Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election. The No outcome applies if any other candidate wins or if the race remains uncalled by all resolution sources until official certification. Readers often mistake the deadline for the moment all three news sources call the race, rather than the final official certification date.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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