Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
The market favoured No at 59% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$15k
Resolved3 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 14:37 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 13:06 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 12:58 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 12:22 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 24% |
| 26 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 25% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Charles Leclerc finishes in the top three positions according to the official Final Classification published by the FIA after the race. The No outcome applies if he does not finish in those top three spots based on that specific classification. Readers often mistake the timing of the podium ceremony for the resolution criteria, but only the FIA's published results count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →