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Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Resolved: No 11d ago

The market favoured No at 82% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$5.8M
Total volume$13.1M
Liquidity$0
Resolved27 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
0%50%100%0%22 Oct, 01:29 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
27 Oct, 01:53 UTC0%
26 Oct, 22:56 UTC15%
26 Oct, 22:22 UTC20%
26 Oct, 21:53 UTC16%
26 Oct, 21:25 UTC22%
26 Oct, 20:56 UTC19%
26 Oct, 20:12 UTC18%
26 Oct, 19:58 UTC17%
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26 Oct, 18:57 UTC20%
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26 Oct, 17:45 UTC19%
26 Oct, 17:28 UTC25%
26 Oct, 16:59 UTC28%
26 Oct, 16:24 UTC35%
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26 Oct, 13:55 UTC27%
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26 Oct, 12:47 UTC21%
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26 Oct, 09:53 UTC22%
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26 Oct, 08:58 UTC23%
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26 Oct, 07:37 UTC22%
26 Oct, 07:06 UTC21%
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26 Oct, 05:53 UTC23%
26 Oct, 05:19 UTC21%
26 Oct, 04:57 UTC20%
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26 Oct, 03:27 UTC20%
26 Oct, 02:48 UTC18%
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26 Oct, 01:27 UTC17%
26 Oct, 00:54 UTC16%
25 Oct, 23:25 UTC18%
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25 Oct, 22:20 UTC14%
25 Oct, 21:57 UTC12%
25 Oct, 21:21 UTC13%
25 Oct, 20:56 UTC12%
25 Oct, 20:26 UTC12%
25 Oct, 19:46 UTC15%
25 Oct, 19:25 UTC15%
25 Oct, 18:57 UTC16%
25 Oct, 18:25 UTC17%
25 Oct, 17:56 UTC16%
25 Oct, 17:17 UTC16%
25 Oct, 16:56 UTC16%
25 Oct, 16:28 UTC16%
25 Oct, 15:46 UTC17%
25 Oct, 15:25 UTC16%
25 Oct, 14:41 UTC18%
25 Oct, 14:27 UTC18%
25 Oct, 13:56 UTC18%
25 Oct, 13:25 UTC18%
25 Oct, 12:56 UTC18%
25 Oct, 12:10 UTC18%
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25 Oct, 10:49 UTC18%
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25 Oct, 09:58 UTC17%
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25 Oct, 08:53 UTC18%
25 Oct, 08:07 UTC18%
25 Oct, 07:53 UTC17%
25 Oct, 07:25 UTC16%
25 Oct, 06:48 UTC17%
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25 Oct, 05:57 UTC16%
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25 Oct, 04:12 UTC17%
25 Oct, 03:58 UTC17%
25 Oct, 03:16 UTC17%
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25 Oct, 00:29 UTC19%
24 Oct, 23:41 UTC17%
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24 Oct, 21:51 UTC20%
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24 Oct, 16:47 UTC19%
24 Oct, 16:22 UTC18%
24 Oct, 15:55 UTC18%
24 Oct, 15:08 UTC18%
24 Oct, 14:54 UTC16%
24 Oct, 14:27 UTC18%
24 Oct, 13:52 UTC24%
24 Oct, 13:29 UTC19%
24 Oct, 12:40 UTC19%
24 Oct, 12:25 UTC19%
24 Oct, 11:57 UTC19%
24 Oct, 11:26 UTC13%
24 Oct, 10:58 UTC13%
24 Oct, 10:10 UTC14%
24 Oct, 09:57 UTC11%
24 Oct, 09:29 UTC11%
24 Oct, 08:57 UTC10%
24 Oct, 08:29 UTC9%
24 Oct, 07:27 UTC8%
24 Oct, 06:58 UTC7%
24 Oct, 04:25 UTC7%
24 Oct, 03:51 UTC7%
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24 Oct, 01:06 UTC7%
24 Oct, 00:59 UTC7%
24 Oct, 00:27 UTC7%
23 Oct, 23:57 UTC7%
23 Oct, 23:17 UTC7%
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23 Oct, 20:42 UTC7%
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23 Oct, 19:57 UTC7%
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23 Oct, 18:40 UTC7%
23 Oct, 18:22 UTC8%
23 Oct, 17:38 UTC8%
23 Oct, 17:24 UTC8%
23 Oct, 16:57 UTC7%
23 Oct, 16:29 UTC7%
23 Oct, 15:49 UTC7%
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23 Oct, 14:59 UTC6%
23 Oct, 14:16 UTC6%
23 Oct, 13:45 UTC7%
23 Oct, 13:19 UTC6%
23 Oct, 12:57 UTC7%
23 Oct, 12:29 UTC7%
23 Oct, 11:48 UTC6%
23 Oct, 11:27 UTC6%
23 Oct, 10:46 UTC6%
23 Oct, 10:10 UTC6%
23 Oct, 09:55 UTC6%
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23 Oct, 08:53 UTC6%
23 Oct, 08:21 UTC6%
23 Oct, 07:54 UTC6%
23 Oct, 07:26 UTC6%
23 Oct, 06:32 UTC6%
23 Oct, 06:11 UTC6%
23 Oct, 05:53 UTC7%
23 Oct, 05:25 UTC7%
23 Oct, 04:57 UTC7%
23 Oct, 04:24 UTC7%
23 Oct, 03:53 UTC7%
23 Oct, 02:33 UTC7%
23 Oct, 01:18 UTC7%
23 Oct, 00:55 UTC7%
23 Oct, 00:28 UTC7%
22 Oct, 23:48 UTC6%
22 Oct, 23:27 UTC6%
22 Oct, 22:53 UTC6%
22 Oct, 22:25 UTC6%
22 Oct, 21:57 UTC6%
22 Oct, 21:23 UTC6%
22 Oct, 20:55 UTC6%
22 Oct, 20:20 UTC6%
22 Oct, 19:58 UTC6%
22 Oct, 19:23 UTC5%
22 Oct, 18:56 UTC6%
22 Oct, 18:27 UTC6%
22 Oct, 17:45 UTC5%
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22 Oct, 16:54 UTC5%
22 Oct, 16:26 UTC5%
22 Oct, 15:57 UTC6%
22 Oct, 15:28 UTC5%
22 Oct, 14:46 UTC5%
22 Oct, 14:24 UTC6%
22 Oct, 13:56 UTC5%
22 Oct, 13:27 UTC4%
22 Oct, 12:43 UTC4%
22 Oct, 12:29 UTC4%
22 Oct, 11:45 UTC4%
22 Oct, 11:07 UTC4%
22 Oct, 10:53 UTC4%
22 Oct, 10:09 UTC4%
22 Oct, 09:47 UTC4%
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22 Oct, 08:29 UTC4%
22 Oct, 07:54 UTC5%
22 Oct, 07:15 UTC4%
22 Oct, 06:39 UTC4%
22 Oct, 06:15 UTC4%
22 Oct, 05:53 UTC4%
22 Oct, 05:25 UTC4%
22 Oct, 03:09 UTC4%
22 Oct, 02:19 UTC4%
22 Oct, 01:58 UTC4%
22 Oct, 01:29 UTC4%

What counts

Yes resolves if Kylian Mbappé is named the winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or by France Football. No resolves if he does not win or if no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake the deadline for the award ceremony date rather than the final resolution cutoff.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 0%
  • No 100%

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