Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?
The market favoured Yes at 65% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$15k
Liquidity$16k
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 13:07 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 10:41 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 75% |
| 24 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 77% |
| 24 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 13:00 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 11:12 UTC | 75% |
| 24 Oct, 10:51 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 10:03 UTC | 78% |
| 24 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 77% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if North Korea conducts exactly three qualifying missile tests during October 2026, based on Pyongyang Time. Qualifying tests include ballistic, cruise, and anti-ship missiles, but exclude surface-to-air missiles, rocket artillery, and torpedoes. If a single test event spans multiple days, it counts only for the day it began.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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