Modi out by December 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 19 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 20:32 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 19:11 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 15:43 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 14:11 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 06:21 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 18:09 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 17:29 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 07:16 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 03:15 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 01:56 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 23:56 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 22:15 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 19:49 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 03:10 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 12:40 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 12:19 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 10:43 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 09:37 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 05:15 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 02:08 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 16:33 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 16:11 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 13:50 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 12:30 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 10:44 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 10:08 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 07:35 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 07:21 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 06:21 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 05:22 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 04:48 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Narendra Modi stops being Prime Minister of India at any point before December 31, 2026. This includes his resignation, removal, detention, or permanent prevention from duty. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the effective date, but an early announcement triggers immediate resolution regardless of when the change takes effect.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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