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Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$23k
Total volume$1.1M
Liquidity$60k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
0%50%100%0%24 Oct, 13:29 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
31 Oct, 12:11 UTC0%
31 Oct, 07:25 UTC0%
31 Oct, 06:29 UTC0%
31 Oct, 03:38 UTC0%
30 Oct, 23:41 UTC0%
30 Oct, 22:26 UTC0%
30 Oct, 19:20 UTC0%
30 Oct, 18:18 UTC1%
30 Oct, 16:32 UTC1%
30 Oct, 15:43 UTC1%
30 Oct, 14:16 UTC1%
30 Oct, 12:59 UTC0%
30 Oct, 11:52 UTC0%
30 Oct, 10:50 UTC1%
30 Oct, 06:14 UTC1%
30 Oct, 05:56 UTC1%
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30 Oct, 00:28 UTC1%
29 Oct, 23:40 UTC1%
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29 Oct, 17:46 UTC1%
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29 Oct, 14:24 UTC1%
29 Oct, 12:52 UTC1%
29 Oct, 11:56 UTC0%
29 Oct, 09:12 UTC1%
29 Oct, 08:50 UTC1%
29 Oct, 08:19 UTC1%
29 Oct, 07:58 UTC0%
29 Oct, 06:58 UTC1%
29 Oct, 05:22 UTC1%
29 Oct, 04:07 UTC2%
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28 Oct, 23:54 UTC2%
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28 Oct, 20:59 UTC2%
28 Oct, 20:17 UTC2%
28 Oct, 19:55 UTC2%
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28 Oct, 18:38 UTC2%
28 Oct, 18:22 UTC2%
28 Oct, 17:47 UTC2%
28 Oct, 17:23 UTC2%
28 Oct, 16:59 UTC2%
28 Oct, 16:24 UTC3%
28 Oct, 15:47 UTC3%
28 Oct, 15:19 UTC2%
28 Oct, 14:56 UTC2%
28 Oct, 13:49 UTC2%
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28 Oct, 12:29 UTC3%
28 Oct, 10:48 UTC3%
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28 Oct, 09:10 UTC3%
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28 Oct, 06:36 UTC3%
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28 Oct, 05:51 UTC3%
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28 Oct, 03:36 UTC4%
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27 Oct, 23:38 UTC5%
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27 Oct, 18:56 UTC6%
27 Oct, 18:19 UTC7%
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27 Oct, 15:56 UTC8%
27 Oct, 15:20 UTC10%
27 Oct, 14:36 UTC9%
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27 Oct, 00:45 UTC10%
27 Oct, 00:24 UTC10%
26 Oct, 23:52 UTC10%
26 Oct, 23:24 UTC10%
26 Oct, 22:56 UTC10%
26 Oct, 22:08 UTC9%
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26 Oct, 20:40 UTC9%
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26 Oct, 19:58 UTC9%
26 Oct, 19:15 UTC8%
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26 Oct, 09:53 UTC10%
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26 Oct, 08:58 UTC9%
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26 Oct, 07:44 UTC9%
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26 Oct, 06:58 UTC11%
26 Oct, 06:27 UTC12%
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26 Oct, 01:58 UTC13%
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25 Oct, 23:35 UTC14%
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25 Oct, 21:57 UTC12%
25 Oct, 21:29 UTC11%
25 Oct, 20:56 UTC11%
25 Oct, 20:26 UTC9%
25 Oct, 19:46 UTC8%
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25 Oct, 18:57 UTC7%
25 Oct, 18:25 UTC7%
25 Oct, 17:56 UTC7%
25 Oct, 17:17 UTC5%
25 Oct, 16:56 UTC3%
25 Oct, 16:28 UTC4%
25 Oct, 15:46 UTC8%
25 Oct, 15:03 UTC9%
25 Oct, 13:03 UTC8%
25 Oct, 11:42 UTC8%
25 Oct, 11:28 UTC8%
25 Oct, 09:58 UTC8%
25 Oct, 09:07 UTC7%
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25 Oct, 07:11 UTC8%
25 Oct, 02:21 UTC8%
24 Oct, 20:31 UTC8%
24 Oct, 20:23 UTC8%
24 Oct, 18:15 UTC8%
24 Oct, 17:36 UTC9%
24 Oct, 17:01 UTC9%
24 Oct, 16:15 UTC8%
24 Oct, 15:41 UTC8%
24 Oct, 15:27 UTC8%
24 Oct, 14:12 UTC8%
24 Oct, 13:29 UTC9%

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What counts

Anthropic wins if its AI model holds the top spot on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at noon ET on October 31, 2026. The ranking relies strictly on the 'Overall' text arena with style control turned off and excludes any models marked as 'AutoEval'. Readers often mistake the source of truth for general industry reviews or ignore the specific requirement to disable style control.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 0%
  • No 100%

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