Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
Implied probability 2%−37
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$24k
Liquidity$10k
Resolves5 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 16:18 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 13:54 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Oct, 12:19 UTC | 45% |
| 4 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Oct, 11:23 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 45% |
| 4 Oct, 06:52 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Oct, 04:45 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 04:26 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 01:33 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 53% |
| 3 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 10:55 UTC | 62% |
| 3 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 68% |
| 3 Oct, 09:41 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Oct, 09:07 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 51% |
| 2 Oct, 08:30 UTC | 36% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Slaven Kovačević is officially elected as the Croat member of the Presidency following the October 4, 2026 general election. The No outcome applies if he is not the elected member or if no one is elected by the March 31, 2027 deadline. Readers often mistake interim or caretaker members for valid outcomes, but only the officially elected individual counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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