Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?
The market favoured Yes at 60% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$12.8M
Total volume$12.8M
Liquidity$1.4M
Resolved18 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 18 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 100% |
| 18 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 63% |
| 18 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 61% |
| 18 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 63% |
| 18 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 62% |
| 18 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 63% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 62% |
| 17 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 61% |
| 17 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 60% |
| 17 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 60% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Arsenal FC wins the match within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. It resolves to No if Arsenal does not win, including draws or losses, or if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up date. Readers often mistake the final result after extra time or penalties for the deciding factor, but only the score at the end of regular time counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →