US x China tariff agreement by September 30?
Implied probability 97%+9
24-hour volume$15k
Total volume$35k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 97% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 97% |
| 26 Sept, 15:48 UTC | 97% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 96% |
| 26 Sept, 14:37 UTC | 96% |
| 26 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 96% |
| 26 Sept, 13:06 UTC | 92% |
| 26 Sept, 12:58 UTC | 92% |
| 26 Sept, 12:22 UTC | 93% |
| 26 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 93% |
| 26 Sept, 10:13 UTC | 92% |
| 26 Sept, 09:33 UTC | 91% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 88% |
| 26 Sept, 08:38 UTC | 84% |
| 26 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 84% |
| 26 Sept, 06:48 UTC | 87% |
| 26 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 87% |
| 25 Sept, 21:00 UTC | 87% |
| 25 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 87% |
| 25 Sept, 18:14 UTC | 87% |
| 25 Sept, 17:34 UTC | 88% |
| 25 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 88% |
| 25 Sept, 15:43 UTC | 87% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 87% |
| 25 Sept, 14:39 UTC | 90% |
| 25 Sept, 14:25 UTC | 88% |
| 25 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 85% |
| 25 Sept, 12:11 UTC | 84% |
| 25 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 84% |
| 25 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 84% |
| 25 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 85% |
| 25 Sept, 08:52 UTC | 84% |
| 25 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 85% |
| 25 Sept, 05:56 UTC | 85% |
| 25 Sept, 05:17 UTC | 85% |
| 25 Sept, 02:46 UTC | 86% |
| 25 Sept, 02:26 UTC | 87% |
| 24 Sept, 23:46 UTC | 86% |
| 24 Sept, 23:14 UTC | 87% |
| 24 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 87% |
| 24 Sept, 20:45 UTC | 85% |
| 24 Sept, 19:17 UTC | 83% |
| 24 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 82% |
| 23 Sept, 11:25 UTC | 74% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the US and China publicly announce a mutual tariff agreement by November 29, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Informal statements or unilateral actions do not count; only a finalized, mutually acknowledged deal qualifies. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a temporary truce for a permanent agreement, but this market requires a formal, lasting resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 97%
- No 3%
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