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Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Resolved: No 5d ago

The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$83k
Liquidity$44k
Resolved30 Nov 2026
How the odds moved · Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
0%50%100%0%27 Oct, 23:38 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
2 Nov, 20:30 UTC0%
2 Nov, 16:49 UTC0%
2 Nov, 16:19 UTC0%
2 Nov, 15:56 UTC0%
2 Nov, 14:56 UTC1%
2 Nov, 08:57 UTC2%
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2 Nov, 06:00 UTC3%
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1 Nov, 23:43 UTC2%
1 Nov, 18:33 UTC2%
1 Nov, 18:18 UTC2%
1 Nov, 17:49 UTC2%
1 Nov, 16:29 UTC2%
1 Nov, 15:53 UTC2%
1 Nov, 13:24 UTC2%
1 Nov, 12:33 UTC2%
1 Nov, 12:02 UTC3%
1 Nov, 11:26 UTC4%
1 Nov, 06:01 UTC5%
1 Nov, 05:40 UTC4%
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1 Nov, 03:54 UTC4%
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1 Nov, 00:49 UTC4%
31 Oct, 23:31 UTC3%
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31 Oct, 22:57 UTC3%
31 Oct, 22:28 UTC3%
31 Oct, 21:46 UTC4%
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31 Oct, 17:21 UTC4%
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31 Oct, 16:29 UTC3%
31 Oct, 14:38 UTC1%
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30 Oct, 23:41 UTC1%
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30 Oct, 06:49 UTC1%
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29 Oct, 23:47 UTC2%
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29 Oct, 20:31 UTC3%
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29 Oct, 14:55 UTC6%
29 Oct, 14:24 UTC5%
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29 Oct, 12:59 UTC8%
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29 Oct, 06:11 UTC19%
29 Oct, 05:51 UTC27%
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29 Oct, 04:28 UTC30%
29 Oct, 03:35 UTC40%
29 Oct, 03:21 UTC40%
29 Oct, 02:53 UTC41%
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29 Oct, 01:59 UTC41%
29 Oct, 01:02 UTC45%
29 Oct, 00:55 UTC45%
29 Oct, 00:27 UTC42%
28 Oct, 23:54 UTC42%
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28 Oct, 22:46 UTC37%
28 Oct, 22:25 UTC31%
28 Oct, 21:57 UTC34%
28 Oct, 21:22 UTC46%
28 Oct, 20:59 UTC46%
28 Oct, 20:09 UTC47%
28 Oct, 19:55 UTC47%
28 Oct, 19:26 UTC43%
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28 Oct, 17:54 UTC55%
28 Oct, 17:23 UTC64%
28 Oct, 16:59 UTC57%
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28 Oct, 15:55 UTC38%
28 Oct, 15:26 UTC9%
28 Oct, 14:56 UTC16%
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28 Oct, 11:45 UTC31%
28 Oct, 11:24 UTC39%
28 Oct, 10:56 UTC44%
28 Oct, 10:23 UTC64%
28 Oct, 09:55 UTC62%
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28 Oct, 07:56 UTC58%
28 Oct, 07:29 UTC51%
28 Oct, 06:43 UTC61%
28 Oct, 06:27 UTC68%
28 Oct, 05:58 UTC75%
28 Oct, 05:19 UTC66%
28 Oct, 04:49 UTC67%
28 Oct, 04:17 UTC65%
28 Oct, 03:56 UTC58%
28 Oct, 03:29 UTC54%
28 Oct, 02:58 UTC44%
28 Oct, 02:23 UTC42%
28 Oct, 01:49 UTC41%
28 Oct, 01:28 UTC41%
28 Oct, 00:53 UTC42%
28 Oct, 00:28 UTC20%
27 Oct, 23:38 UTC9%

What counts

The Yes outcome occurs if The Joint List wins 12 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli Knesset election, including any seats won as part of a joint list or merged party. The No outcome applies if they win fewer than 12 seats.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 0%
  • No 100%

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