Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
Implied probability 87%−2
24-hour volume$81k
Total volume$607k
Liquidity$34k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
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What counts
The market resolves to "No Hormuz Agreement" if no diplomatic deal between the United States and Iran regarding shipping traffic is announced by November 2, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying agreement requires a clear, mutual acceptance of specific obligations from both nations, not just ongoing negotiations or separate policy statements.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 87%
- No 13%