Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
The market favoured Yes at 56% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$779
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$13k
Resolved8 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Nov, 02:44 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 22:53 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 22:24 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 20:29 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Nov, 19:52 UTC | 49% |
| 1 Nov, 18:54 UTC | 51% |
| 1 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Nov, 17:35 UTC | 51% |
| 1 Nov, 16:36 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 51% |
| 1 Nov, 15:53 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Nov, 15:16 UTC | 51% |
| 1 Nov, 14:37 UTC | 50% |
| 1 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 51% |
| 1 Nov, 13:32 UTC | 53% |
| 1 Nov, 13:02 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Nov, 12:48 UTC | 53% |
| 1 Nov, 12:09 UTC | 53% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Nov, 10:36 UTC | 53% |
| 1 Nov, 10:28 UTC | 54% |
| 1 Nov, 09:08 UTC | 55% |
| 1 Nov, 08:25 UTC | 56% |
| 1 Nov, 07:59 UTC | 57% |
| 1 Nov, 07:25 UTC | 57% |
| 1 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 56% |
| 1 Nov, 06:15 UTC | 56% |
| 1 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 56% |
| 1 Nov, 05:11 UTC | 56% |
| 1 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 56% |
| 1 Nov, 04:22 UTC | 56% |
| 1 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 54% |
| 1 Nov, 03:12 UTC | 55% |
| 1 Nov, 02:50 UTC | 54% |
| 1 Nov, 02:15 UTC | 54% |
| 1 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 54% |
| 1 Nov, 01:10 UTC | 54% |
| 1 Nov, 00:49 UTC | 54% |
| 1 Nov, 00:21 UTC | 54% |
| 31 Oct, 23:31 UTC | 54% |
| 31 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 53% |
| 31 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 53% |
| 30 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 41% |
What counts
The outcome depends on whether George Russell finishes in the top three of the official Final Classification published by the FIA after the race. Readers often mistake the podium ceremony timing or post-race disqualifications for the final result, but only the FIA's published classification counts. The market resolves based on this specific document, regardless of when the ceremony occurs.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →