Will Harry Kane finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Implied probability 6%+2
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$11k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 12:40 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 10:51 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 09:57 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 07:17 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 04:25 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 14:51 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 13:11 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 09:14 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
Harry Kane finishes third in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking for Yes, and any other player takes that spot for No. The deadline is November 2, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, when the official ranking must be published by France Football or UEFA. Readers often mistake the October 26 ceremony date for the resolution deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 94%
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