Australia Tour of South Africa ODIs: South Africa vs Australia
The market favoured Australia at 55% a day out, but South Africa won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$182k
Total volume$192k
Liquidity$0
Resolved4 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 27 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 100% |
| 27 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 97% |
| 27 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 92% |
| 27 Sept, 14:45 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Sept, 13:55 UTC | 55% |
| 27 Sept, 13:29 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 72% |
| 27 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 75% |
| 27 Sept, 11:54 UTC | 74% |
| 27 Sept, 11:06 UTC | 72% |
| 27 Sept, 10:44 UTC | 68% |
| 27 Sept, 10:22 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 09:50 UTC | 44% |
| 27 Sept, 09:23 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 36% |
| 27 Sept, 08:29 UTC | 39% |
| 27 Sept, 07:55 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 45% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 46% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 46% |
| 26 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 46% |
| 26 Sept, 03:23 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Sept, 02:24 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Sept, 20:32 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 20:11 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Sept, 19:32 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 18:29 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 16:37 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Sept, 15:01 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Sept, 14:54 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 14:25 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 13:54 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 13:11 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Sept, 11:04 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 10:57 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Sept, 09:37 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Sept, 08:46 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Sept, 08:06 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Sept, 07:07 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Sept, 06:10 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 05:43 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 04:49 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 03:37 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Sept, 02:59 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 02:06 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Sept, 01:26 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Sept, 00:52 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Sept, 00:13 UTC | 47% |
| 24 Sept, 23:52 UTC | 47% |
| 24 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 48% |
| 24 Sept, 22:53 UTC | 47% |
| 23 Sept, 22:53 UTC | 50% |
What counts
The market resolves to South Africa if they win the scheduled ODI on September 27, 2026, and to Australia if they win. Ties without a Super Over or canceled matches result in a 50-50 split. Readers often mistake the linked story about the first ODI as relevant, but this market applies only to the specific fixture scheduled for September 27.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- South Africa 100%
- Australia 0%
View this market on Polymarket →