Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 76-78%?
Implied probability 4%−28
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$22k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves26 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 01:58 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 22:13 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 16% |
| 25 Oct, 19:25 UTC | 15% |
| 25 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 26% |
| 25 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 23% |
| 25 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 24% |
| 25 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 26% |
| 25 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 29% |
| 25 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 13:17 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 33% |
| 25 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 33% |
| 25 Oct, 06:05 UTC | 33% |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 32% |
| 25 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 33% |
| 24 Oct, 23:48 UTC | 32% |
| 24 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 32% |
| 24 Oct, 22:12 UTC | 33% |
| 24 Oct, 18:08 UTC | 32% |
| 24 Oct, 17:22 UTC | 32% |
| 24 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 32% |
| 24 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 32% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 31% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 32% |
| 23 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 25% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome depends on the official voter turnout percentage in Brazil's second presidential election round on October 25, 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if the turnout is between 76% and 78%, inclusive; otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the resolution deadline of June 30, 2027, for the election date, but the market uses only the final official turnout figure from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 97%
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