Will the Republicans win the Illinois governor race in 2026?
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$16k
Total volume$37k
Liquidity$29k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 02:49 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:05 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 20:49 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 19:06 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 15:14 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 14:53 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 14:25 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 12:50 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 12:21 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if a Republican wins the 2026 Illinois governor election, while No applies if any other candidate wins. The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or based on official certification if they do not agree.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →