Will The Black Ball win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 79% |
| 22 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 78% |
| 22 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 79% |
| 22 Sept, 02:00 UTC | 79% |
| 22 Sept, 00:53 UTC | 79% |
| 21 Sept, 21:09 UTC | 79% |
| 21 Sept, 13:39 UTC | 77% |
| 21 Sept, 13:17 UTC | 77% |
| 21 Sept, 05:09 UTC | 78% |
| 17 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 73% |
| 17 Sept, 17:00 UTC | 73% |
| 17 Sept, 16:25 UTC | 73% |
| 17 Sept, 14:02 UTC | 73% |
| 16 Sept, 07:43 UTC | 67% |
| 16 Sept, 07:01 UTC | 66% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if The Black Ball wins the Best International Feature Film Oscar at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony on March 14, 2027. It resolves to No if the film loses or fails to receive an official nomination when they are announced on January 21, 2027. Readers often mistake the Toronto Film Festival win for a guarantee, but only the final Oscar result determines the outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 79%
- No 22%
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