Spread: Celtics (-2.5)
The market favoured Knicks at 52% a day out, but Celtics won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$591k
Total volume$592k
Liquidity$638
Resolved23 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 23 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 52% |
| 23 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 53% |
| 23 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Oct, 16:50 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Oct, 15:49 UTC | 50% |
| 23 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 49% |
| 23 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Oct, 13:11 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 52% |
| 23 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 52% |
| 23 Oct, 10:17 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 49% |
| 22 Oct, 06:38 UTC | 48% |
What counts
The Celtics outcome requires them to win by three points or more in their October 23 game against the Knicks. The Knicks outcome applies if they win, tie, or if the Celtics win by fewer than three points. Readers often mistake this market for resolving based on the Pistons game mentioned in the linked story.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Celtics 100%
- Knicks 0%
View this market on Polymarket →