Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
Why it moved: +5 points at 13:49 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: US Treasuries Stumble as Strong Labor Market Lifts Fed-Hike Bets — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 76% |
| 7 Nov, 07:07 UTC | 76% |
| 7 Nov, 06:12 UTC | 76% |
| 7 Nov, 05:57 UTC | 76% |
| 7 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 76% |
| 7 Nov, 04:33 UTC | 77% |
| 7 Nov, 03:52 UTC | 76% |
| 7 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 76% |
| 7 Nov, 02:31 UTC | 77% |
| 7 Nov, 02:02 UTC | 76% |
| 7 Nov, 01:55 UTC | 77% |
| 6 Nov, 23:33 UTC | 76% |
| 6 Nov, 23:26 UTC | 76% |
| 6 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 76% |
| 6 Nov, 22:14 UTC | 76% |
| 6 Nov, 19:33 UTC | 76% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 76% |
| 6 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 74% |
| 6 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 74% |
| 6 Nov, 17:57 UTC | 73% |
| 6 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 72% |
| 6 Nov, 16:35 UTC | 75% |
| 6 Nov, 16:05 UTC | 77% |
| 6 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 77% |
| 6 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 76% |
| 6 Nov, 13:49 UTC | 72% |
| 6 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 68% |
| 6 Nov, 10:42 UTC | 69% |
| 6 Nov, 10:27 UTC | 68% |
| 6 Nov, 09:58 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Nov, 07:38 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Nov, 04:34 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Nov, 04:06 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Nov, 02:36 UTC | 68% |
| 6 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 68% |
| 5 Nov, 23:44 UTC | 67% |
| 5 Nov, 23:01 UTC | 67% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the federal funds rate hits 4.25% or higher at any time by December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET. The lower bound also counts toward this threshold. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of 2027 instead of late 2026.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 76%
- No 24%
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