Spread: Nebraska (-4.5)
The market favoured Nebraska at 50% a day out, but Illinois won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$150k
Total volume$151k
Liquidity$120k
Resolved7 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 0% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 51% |
| 6 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 49% |
| 6 Nov, 15:05 UTC | 49% |
| 5 Nov, 15:05 UTC | 51% |
What counts
Nebraska wins if they beat Illinois by five or more points. Illinois wins if Nebraska loses or wins by four points or fewer. Readers often mistake the point spread for a requirement to win the game outright.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Nebraska 0%
- Illinois 100%
View this market on Polymarket →