Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?
Why it moved: +14 points at 13:56 UTC, after BBC News: US midterm results spark fears in Israel over future of two countries' ties — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 6 Nov, 20:39 UTC | 99% |
| 6 Nov, 20:02 UTC | 98% |
| 6 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 95% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 98% |
| 6 Nov, 17:57 UTC | 98% |
| 6 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 85% |
| 6 Nov, 15:13 UTC | 85% |
| 6 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Nov, 13:56 UTC | 87% |
| 6 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 73% |
| 6 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 71% |
| 6 Nov, 09:30 UTC | 76% |
| 6 Nov, 08:55 UTC | 70% |
| 6 Nov, 07:59 UTC | 71% |
| 6 Nov, 06:14 UTC | 69% |
| 6 Nov, 04:13 UTC | 75% |
| 6 Nov, 03:58 UTC | 75% |
| 6 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 76% |
| 6 Nov, 02:52 UTC | 76% |
| 6 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 76% |
| 6 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 75% |
| 6 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 77% |
| 6 Nov, 00:20 UTC | 76% |
| 5 Nov, 23:58 UTC | 77% |
| 5 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 77% |
| 5 Nov, 22:40 UTC | 78% |
| 5 Nov, 22:11 UTC | 82% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 83% |
| 5 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 84% |
| 5 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 85% |
| 5 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 85% |
| 5 Nov, 19:07 UTC | 89% |
| 5 Nov, 18:43 UTC | 90% |
| 5 Nov, 16:51 UTC | 89% |
| 5 Nov, 10:32 UTC | 80% |
| 5 Nov, 10:24 UTC | 80% |
| 5 Nov, 09:19 UTC | 74% |
| 5 Nov, 08:44 UTC | 80% |
| 5 Nov, 07:59 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Nov, 07:24 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Nov, 06:47 UTC | 80% |
| 5 Nov, 06:11 UTC | 77% |
| 5 Nov, 05:42 UTC | 83% |
| 5 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 82% |
| 5 Nov, 04:34 UTC | 81% |
| 5 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Nov, 03:58 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Nov, 03:08 UTC | 81% |
| 5 Nov, 02:54 UTC | 81% |
| 5 Nov, 02:17 UTC | 81% |
| 5 Nov, 01:56 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Nov, 01:28 UTC | 58% |
| 5 Nov, 00:44 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Nov, 23:54 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Nov, 23:25 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 22:13 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 21:10 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 20:23 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 19:49 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Nov, 19:19 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 18:42 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 10:44 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 04:10 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 04:10 UTC | 10% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome depends on which party receives the largest share of white voters in national House exit polls from CNN. You must check the specific CNN webpage at 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026, to see the final numbers. Readers often mistake the election day for the resolution time or assume any poll counts rather than only the designated CNN data.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%
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