FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?
Implied probability 3%
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$11k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 06:07 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 05:01 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 04:02 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 02:50 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 02:10 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 01:57 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 00:50 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 21:54 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 15:42 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 15:14 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 11:07 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 09:01 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 18:07 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 13:40 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 11:28 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 10:55 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 10:29 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 09:41 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 16:37 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 15:44 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 15:16 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 14:42 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Oct, 14:28 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 12:30 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 06:43 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 06:24 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 02:05 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Oct, 23:32 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 20:42 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 8% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the co-pilot physically enters Israeli territory by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is No if he does not enter Israel within that timeframe or if the event occurs outside the specified period. Readers often mistake official announcements of intent for actual transfer, but only physical entry into Israel counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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