Will "The Diplomat: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$0
Resolved21 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 0% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 0% |
| 19 Oct, 02:22 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Oct, 01:33 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 6% |
| 18 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 12:55 UTC | 9% |
| 18 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 11:40 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 10:59 UTC | 18% |
| 18 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 16% |
| 18 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 29% |
| 18 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 19% |
What counts
The outcome depends on which show ranks second on Netflix's Top 10 list for the week of October 12–18, 2026. The market resolves based on the official update posted to top10.netflix.com by Tuesday, October 20, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET. Readers often mistake the linked article's discussion for the ranking data or miss that ties break alphabetically rather than by viewership count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →