Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$13k
Total volume$3.6M
Liquidity$94k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 10:50 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 10:20 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 06:35 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 06:21 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 13:15 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 10:04 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 03:14 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 23:54 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 22:39 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 19:40 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 14:49 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 12:12 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
For the market to resolve as "Yes," the Federal Reserve must implement at least one rate cut in 2026, where any reduction between 1 and 24 basis points counts as a single cut. For the market to resolve as "No," no such cuts occur by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, including any emergency actions outside scheduled meetings.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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