Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
Implied probability 0%−51
24-hour volume$85k
Total volume$278k
Liquidity$55k
Resolves5 Oct 2026
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the first round by a margin of less than 5 percentage points, and No otherwise. The outcome depends on the official vote count released by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Readers often mistake the linked news story about sports betting bans as relevant to the resolution, but only the final election results matter.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%