Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$77k
Total volume$201k
Liquidity$0
Resolved31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 00:50 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 56% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile at a listed Arab country before September 30, 2026, regardless of whether the munitions are intercepted. The action must be explicitly claimed by Iran or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory; attacks by proxy forces do not count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →