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Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Resolved: No 10h ago

The market favoured No at 83% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$19k
Total volume$111k
Liquidity$50k
Resolved1 Jan 2027

Why it moved: −23 points at 18:56 UTC, after politico.com: Stephen Miller will replace Susie Wiles as White House chief of staff — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
0%50%100%0%30 Oct, 22:54 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
6 Nov, 19:33 UTC0%
6 Nov, 19:25 UTC2%
6 Nov, 18:56 UTC9%
6 Nov, 17:50 UTC31%
6 Nov, 16:43 UTC32%
6 Nov, 16:28 UTC31%
6 Nov, 15:51 UTC27%
6 Nov, 15:21 UTC27%
6 Nov, 12:44 UTC23%
6 Nov, 11:29 UTC23%
6 Nov, 09:30 UTC23%
6 Nov, 08:48 UTC23%
6 Nov, 07:24 UTC24%
6 Nov, 06:49 UTC22%
6 Nov, 06:21 UTC22%
6 Nov, 05:53 UTC22%
6 Nov, 05:18 UTC22%
6 Nov, 04:49 UTC22%
6 Nov, 04:27 UTC22%
6 Nov, 03:58 UTC25%
6 Nov, 03:15 UTC25%
6 Nov, 02:52 UTC24%
6 Nov, 02:29 UTC24%
6 Nov, 01:38 UTC23%
6 Nov, 00:55 UTC17%
6 Nov, 00:27 UTC18%
5 Nov, 23:58 UTC18%
5 Nov, 23:22 UTC18%
5 Nov, 22:54 UTC18%
5 Nov, 21:34 UTC17%
5 Nov, 21:26 UTC17%
5 Nov, 20:56 UTC18%
5 Nov, 20:20 UTC19%
5 Nov, 19:57 UTC17%
5 Nov, 19:29 UTC14%
5 Nov, 17:58 UTC14%
5 Nov, 17:28 UTC14%
5 Nov, 16:58 UTC15%
5 Nov, 16:29 UTC16%
5 Nov, 15:25 UTC16%
5 Nov, 14:47 UTC16%
5 Nov, 14:16 UTC16%
5 Nov, 13:52 UTC16%
5 Nov, 12:59 UTC16%
5 Nov, 11:56 UTC16%
5 Nov, 11:26 UTC16%
5 Nov, 10:17 UTC17%
5 Nov, 09:55 UTC17%
5 Nov, 09:05 UTC17%
5 Nov, 08:58 UTC17%
5 Nov, 08:21 UTC17%
5 Nov, 07:59 UTC11%
5 Nov, 07:24 UTC13%
5 Nov, 06:55 UTC15%
5 Nov, 06:19 UTC16%
5 Nov, 05:57 UTC16%
5 Nov, 05:23 UTC16%
5 Nov, 04:47 UTC13%
5 Nov, 04:26 UTC14%
5 Nov, 03:58 UTC16%
5 Nov, 03:16 UTC17%
5 Nov, 02:54 UTC17%
5 Nov, 01:49 UTC13%
5 Nov, 01:28 UTC13%
5 Nov, 00:51 UTC13%
5 Nov, 00:16 UTC16%
4 Nov, 23:54 UTC27%
4 Nov, 23:25 UTC27%
4 Nov, 22:49 UTC27%
4 Nov, 22:27 UTC29%
4 Nov, 20:45 UTC22%
4 Nov, 18:27 UTC22%
4 Nov, 17:20 UTC23%
4 Nov, 16:57 UTC23%
4 Nov, 16:13 UTC29%
4 Nov, 15:58 UTC29%
4 Nov, 15:13 UTC29%
4 Nov, 14:59 UTC29%
4 Nov, 14:01 UTC29%
4 Nov, 13:53 UTC29%
4 Nov, 13:24 UTC30%
4 Nov, 12:24 UTC23%
4 Nov, 11:32 UTC20%
4 Nov, 11:12 UTC20%
4 Nov, 10:36 UTC20%
4 Nov, 10:21 UTC21%
4 Nov, 08:38 UTC21%
4 Nov, 08:24 UTC21%
4 Nov, 07:56 UTC21%
4 Nov, 07:27 UTC21%
4 Nov, 04:25 UTC21%
4 Nov, 03:41 UTC21%
4 Nov, 03:18 UTC21%
4 Nov, 02:56 UTC23%
4 Nov, 02:26 UTC26%
4 Nov, 01:57 UTC28%
3 Nov, 21:57 UTC37%
3 Nov, 21:26 UTC37%
3 Nov, 19:42 UTC37%
3 Nov, 18:59 UTC37%
3 Nov, 17:26 UTC37%
3 Nov, 16:47 UTC37%
3 Nov, 16:19 UTC37%
3 Nov, 15:50 UTC37%
3 Nov, 15:29 UTC43%
3 Nov, 14:53 UTC44%
3 Nov, 14:25 UTC44%
3 Nov, 13:55 UTC45%
3 Nov, 13:18 UTC32%
3 Nov, 12:42 UTC32%
3 Nov, 12:28 UTC32%
3 Nov, 11:52 UTC32%
3 Nov, 11:27 UTC32%
3 Nov, 10:45 UTC32%
3 Nov, 10:16 UTC32%
3 Nov, 09:54 UTC31%
3 Nov, 09:27 UTC32%
3 Nov, 08:52 UTC32%
3 Nov, 08:25 UTC31%
3 Nov, 07:55 UTC31%
3 Nov, 07:26 UTC31%
3 Nov, 06:44 UTC31%
3 Nov, 06:23 UTC29%
3 Nov, 05:54 UTC28%
3 Nov, 05:25 UTC27%
3 Nov, 04:57 UTC26%
3 Nov, 01:17 UTC34%
3 Nov, 00:26 UTC34%
2 Nov, 23:01 UTC34%
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC34%
2 Nov, 21:26 UTC34%
2 Nov, 20:30 UTC34%
2 Nov, 20:16 UTC34%
2 Nov, 19:54 UTC35%
2 Nov, 19:26 UTC37%
2 Nov, 11:50 UTC38%
2 Nov, 04:33 UTC38%
2 Nov, 04:26 UTC38%
2 Nov, 02:58 UTC39%
2 Nov, 02:22 UTC39%
2 Nov, 01:32 UTC39%
2 Nov, 01:24 UTC39%
2 Nov, 00:55 UTC39%
2 Nov, 00:19 UTC39%
1 Nov, 23:22 UTC39%
1 Nov, 22:39 UTC39%
1 Nov, 22:10 UTC39%
1 Nov, 21:19 UTC40%
1 Nov, 20:57 UTC40%
1 Nov, 20:21 UTC41%
1 Nov, 19:30 UTC41%
1 Nov, 19:16 UTC41%
1 Nov, 18:54 UTC45%
1 Nov, 18:18 UTC37%
1 Nov, 16:36 UTC38%
1 Nov, 16:29 UTC39%
1 Nov, 15:53 UTC39%
1 Nov, 15:00 UTC40%
1 Nov, 14:09 UTC40%
1 Nov, 13:24 UTC40%
1 Nov, 12:55 UTC40%
1 Nov, 12:16 UTC37%
1 Nov, 11:55 UTC37%
1 Nov, 11:26 UTC37%
1 Nov, 10:57 UTC37%
1 Nov, 10:28 UTC37%
1 Nov, 09:50 UTC37%
1 Nov, 09:28 UTC37%
1 Nov, 08:39 UTC37%
1 Nov, 08:25 UTC37%
1 Nov, 07:59 UTC37%
1 Nov, 07:25 UTC37%
1 Nov, 06:57 UTC37%
1 Nov, 05:40 UTC38%
1 Nov, 05:25 UTC38%
1 Nov, 04:57 UTC38%
1 Nov, 02:08 UTC38%
1 Nov, 01:52 UTC38%
1 Nov, 01:17 UTC38%
1 Nov, 00:56 UTC38%
1 Nov, 00:07 UTC38%
31 Oct, 23:46 UTC38%
31 Oct, 23:17 UTC38%
31 Oct, 22:50 UTC38%
31 Oct, 22:28 UTC38%
31 Oct, 19:24 UTC39%
31 Oct, 18:48 UTC38%
31 Oct, 18:27 UTC39%
31 Oct, 17:57 UTC39%
31 Oct, 17:21 UTC40%
31 Oct, 16:58 UTC40%
31 Oct, 16:29 UTC40%
31 Oct, 15:52 UTC40%
31 Oct, 15:22 UTC41%
31 Oct, 14:53 UTC41%
31 Oct, 14:16 UTC42%
31 Oct, 13:46 UTC42%
31 Oct, 13:16 UTC42%
31 Oct, 12:25 UTC42%
31 Oct, 11:57 UTC42%
31 Oct, 11:21 UTC42%
31 Oct, 10:59 UTC42%
31 Oct, 09:59 UTC42%
31 Oct, 09:24 UTC42%
31 Oct, 08:56 UTC42%
31 Oct, 08:14 UTC42%
31 Oct, 07:18 UTC42%
31 Oct, 06:36 UTC42%
31 Oct, 06:29 UTC41%
31 Oct, 05:54 UTC41%
31 Oct, 05:19 UTC41%
31 Oct, 04:57 UTC41%
31 Oct, 04:14 UTC41%
31 Oct, 03:52 UTC41%
31 Oct, 03:24 UTC41%
31 Oct, 02:47 UTC41%
31 Oct, 01:11 UTC41%
31 Oct, 00:38 UTC41%
31 Oct, 00:17 UTC42%
30 Oct, 23:55 UTC50%
30 Oct, 23:23 UTC54%
30 Oct, 22:54 UTC54%

What counts

The market resolves to "Yes" if any current Cabinet member resigns or is removed before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome depends on the official announcement of departure, not when the person actually leaves office. Readers often mistake acting officials for permanent members; only confirmed appointees count toward this resolution.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 0%
  • No 100%

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