FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5
The market favoured Over at 61% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$600k
Total volume$600k
Liquidity$676k
Resolved21 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 21 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 60% |
| 21 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 61% |
| 21 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 62% |
| 21 Oct, 16:01 UTC | 63% |
| 21 Oct, 14:39 UTC | 62% |
| 21 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 63% |
| 21 Oct, 12:14 UTC | 62% |
| 21 Oct, 11:31 UTC | 61% |
| 21 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 61% |
| 21 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 62% |
| 20 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 61% |
What counts
The "Over" outcome occurs if Bayern Munich and Arsenal score three or more goals combined during regular play plus stoppage time. The "Under" outcome applies if their total is fewer than three goals. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking extra time or penalties count toward the total, but only the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time matter.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Over 100%
- Under 0%
View this market on Polymarket →