Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?
Implied probability 98%+54
24-hour volume$148k
Total volume$216k
Liquidity$44k
Resolves28 Oct 2026
Why it moved: +29 points at 23:19 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: A bad day for Ben-Gvir as he addresses his supporters — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 28 Oct, 03:56 UTC | 99% |
| 28 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 98% |
| 28 Oct, 02:58 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 94% |
| 28 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 94% |
| 28 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 92% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 95% |
| 28 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 89% |
| 27 Oct, 23:52 UTC | 81% |
| 27 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 74% |
| 27 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 46% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Oct, 21:26 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 38% |
| 27 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 30% |
| 27 Oct, 17:43 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 33% |
| 27 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 33% |
| 27 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 30% |
| 27 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 37% |
| 27 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 36% |
| 27 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Oct, 11:51 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Oct, 10:34 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Oct, 10:27 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Oct, 09:51 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Oct, 08:54 UTC | 46% |
| 27 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Oct, 07:37 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Oct, 07:03 UTC | 46% |
| 27 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 46% |
| 27 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 46% |
| 27 Oct, 04:47 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Oct, 03:59 UTC | 44% |
| 27 Oct, 03:12 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Oct, 02:58 UTC | 46% |
| 27 Oct, 01:39 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 46% |
| 26 Oct, 23:52 UTC | 45% |
| 26 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 45% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 46% |
| 26 Oct, 22:22 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 44% |
| 26 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 44% |
| 26 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 41% |
| 26 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 45% |
| 26 Oct, 17:36 UTC | 50% |
| 26 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Oct, 16:17 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 54% |
| 26 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Oct, 12:47 UTC | 49% |
| 26 Oct, 12:03 UTC | 50% |
| 26 Oct, 11:09 UTC | 52% |
| 26 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 55% |
| 26 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 46% |
| 26 Oct, 08:51 UTC | 45% |
| 26 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 46% |
| 26 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 44% |
| 26 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 50% |
| 26 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Oct, 05:04 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 44% |
| 26 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 43% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 21:36 UTC | 49% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 49% |
| 25 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Oct, 14:19 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 42% |
| 25 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 43% |
| 25 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 12:03 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Oct, 11:14 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Oct, 10:21 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 43% |
| 25 Oct, 08:00 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Oct, 07:39 UTC | 43% |
| 25 Oct, 07:18 UTC | 43% |
| 25 Oct, 06:35 UTC | 42% |
| 25 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 42% |
| 25 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 42% |
| 25 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 42% |
| 25 Oct, 02:42 UTC | 43% |
| 25 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 42% |
| 25 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 42% |
| 24 Oct, 23:12 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 40% |
| 24 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Oct, 20:51 UTC | 38% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 39% |
| 24 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 40% |
| 24 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 40% |
| 24 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 39% |
| 24 Oct, 18:08 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Oct, 17:29 UTC | 52% |
| 24 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 42% |
| 24 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Oct, 15:41 UTC | 40% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 40% |
| 24 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 40% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 40% |
| 24 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 40% |
| 24 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 42% |
| 24 Oct, 10:03 UTC | 43% |
| 24 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 45% |
| 23 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 40% |
| 23 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 40% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 40% |
| 23 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 39% |
| 23 Oct, 17:04 UTC | 37% |
| 23 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 37% |
| 23 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 38% |
| 23 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 38% |
| 23 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 39% |
| 23 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 41% |
| 23 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 41% |
| 23 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 42% |
| 22 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 42% |
| 22 Oct, 23:13 UTC | 43% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 47% |
| 22 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 46% |
| 22 Oct, 14:39 UTC | 43% |
| 22 Oct, 13:34 UTC | 44% |
| 22 Oct, 13:27 UTC | 43% |
| 22 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 44% |
| 22 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 44% |
| 22 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 45% |
| 22 Oct, 07:00 UTC | 46% |
| 22 Oct, 04:34 UTC | 47% |
| 22 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 46% |
| 22 Oct, 00:38 UTC | 45% |
| 21 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 46% |
| 21 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 45% |
| 21 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 44% |
| 21 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 43% |
| 21 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 43% |
| 21 Oct, 19:54 UTC | 42% |
| 21 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 42% |
| 21 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 41% |
| 21 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 42% |
| 21 Oct, 17:12 UTC | 43% |
| 21 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 43% |
| 21 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 43% |
| 21 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 43% |
| 21 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 43% |
| 21 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 44% |
| 21 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 42% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Bibi outcome wins if Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas secure more Knesset seats than The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu. The Opp. outcome wins if the latter group of parties secures more seats than the former.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Bibi 98%
- Opp. 2%
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