France leading at halftime?
The market favoured Yes at 53% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$35k
Total volume$36k
Liquidity$45k
Resolved25 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 23:01 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 58% |
| 25 Sept, 18:00 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 56% |
| 24 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 52% |
What counts
The "Yes" outcome occurs if France leads at any point during the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time in the scheduled match against Turkey. The "No" outcome applies if France does not lead within that specific timeframe, including if the score is tied or if Turkey is ahead.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →