Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)
The market favoured Jaguars at 54% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$230k
Total volume$345k
Liquidity$129k
Resolved27 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 27 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 100% |
| 27 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 15:45 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 20:11 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Sept, 21:32 UTC | 55% |
| 24 Sept, 01:58 UTC | 54% |
| 23 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 55% |
| 23 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 54% |
| 22 Sept, 15:04 UTC | 56% |
| 22 Sept, 05:42 UTC | 55% |
What counts
The Jaguars outcome wins if they beat the Patriots by three points or more. The Patriots outcome wins if they win the game, tie it, or lose by fewer than three points. Readers often mistake the spread for a simple winner-take-all bet rather than a margin of victory.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Jaguars 100%
- Patriots 0%
View this market on Polymarket →