Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and a Democrat not win the 2028 presidential election?
Why it moved: −4 points at 18:28 UTC, after The Hill: Nikki Haley is wrong! Democrats won midterms, Republicans didn't just lose — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 35% |
| 6 Nov, 04:56 UTC | 35% |
| 6 Nov, 04:13 UTC | 35% |
| 6 Nov, 02:07 UTC | 35% |
| 6 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Nov, 00:12 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 23:58 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 22:04 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 18:35 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 18:28 UTC | 35% |
| 5 Nov, 16:51 UTC | 39% |
| 5 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 39% |
| 5 Nov, 15:49 UTC | 39% |
| 5 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 39% |
| 5 Nov, 12:59 UTC | 40% |
| 5 Nov, 10:24 UTC | 40% |
| 5 Nov, 09:55 UTC | 40% |
| 5 Nov, 05:57 UTC | 37% |
| 5 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 37% |
| 5 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 37% |
| 5 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 38% |
| 5 Nov, 03:58 UTC | 37% |
| 5 Nov, 03:16 UTC | 37% |
| 5 Nov, 02:47 UTC | 37% |
| 5 Nov, 01:28 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Nov, 23:54 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Nov, 23:25 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 13:02 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 12:40 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 12:17 UTC | 29% |
| 4 Nov, 10:58 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 08:53 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 08:24 UTC | 29% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 23% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The Yes outcome requires Democrats to win majorities in both the House and Senate in 2026 while their presidential candidate loses the 2028 election. The No outcome covers all other scenarios, including any Democratic sweep of Congress combined with a Democratic presidential victory.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 35%
- No 65%
Trade this market on Polymarket →