Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
The market favoured No at 66% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$90k
Total volume$101k
Liquidity$0
Resolved8 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 2 Nov, 03:57 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Nov, 02:01 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 23:00 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 22:53 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 22:24 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Nov, 20:29 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Nov, 19:52 UTC | 32% |
| 1 Nov, 19:23 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 10:14 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 09:15 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 08:25 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 07:52 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 04:29 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 02:50 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 00:00 UTC | 36% |
| 31 Oct, 23:53 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 8% |
What counts
For the Yes outcome, Lewis Hamilton must finish first in the race as listed in the FIA's Final Classification. For the No outcome, any other driver must take that top spot according to the same official report. Readers often mistake the podium ceremony or post-race disqualifications for the final result, but only the published classification counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →