OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Implied probability 7%+2
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$366k
Liquidity$23k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 7 Nov, 04:33 UTC | 7% |
| 7 Nov, 03:52 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 7% |
| 7 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 21:16 UTC | 7% |
| 6 Nov, 20:31 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 17:57 UTC | 7% |
| 6 Nov, 17:12 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 7% |
| 6 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 7% |
| 6 Nov, 13:13 UTC | 6% |
| 5 Nov, 22:40 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 09:36 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 17:03 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 13:18 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 03:12 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Nov, 23:16 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Nov, 22:39 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 14:30 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 13:09 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Nov, 10:28 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Nov, 02:43 UTC | 9% |
| 1 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 10% |
| 1 Nov, 01:38 UTC | 10% |
| 31 Oct, 23:31 UTC | 9% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 10% |
| 31 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 11% |
| 31 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 10% |
| 31 Oct, 15:15 UTC | 11% |
| 31 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 10% |
| 31 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 10% |
| 31 Oct, 10:30 UTC | 9% |
| 31 Oct, 09:52 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI or an official representative announces the creation of artificial general intelligence by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the completion date of the technology.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 93%
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