Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 7?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 96% |
| 27 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 96% |
| 27 Oct, 21:26 UTC | 96% |
| 27 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 96% |
| 27 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 95% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 91% |
| 27 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 91% |
| 27 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 90% |
| 27 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 90% |
| 27 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 90% |
| 27 Oct, 14:43 UTC | 90% |
| 27 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 90% |
| 27 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 90% |
| 27 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 90% |
| 27 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 89% |
| 27 Oct, 10:12 UTC | 89% |
| 27 Oct, 09:51 UTC | 89% |
| 27 Oct, 09:01 UTC | 89% |
| 27 Oct, 08:54 UTC | 89% |
| 27 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 90% |
| 27 Oct, 05:34 UTC | 90% |
| 27 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 90% |
| 27 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 90% |
| 27 Oct, 00:31 UTC | 90% |
| 27 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 90% |
| 26 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 88% |
| 26 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 88% |
| 26 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 88% |
| 26 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 89% |
| 26 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 89% |
| 26 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 89% |
| 26 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 89% |
| 26 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 90% |
| 26 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 90% |
| 26 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 88% |
| 26 Oct, 11:31 UTC | 88% |
| 26 Oct, 11:16 UTC | 88% |
| 26 Oct, 10:34 UTC | 90% |
| 26 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 90% |
| 26 Oct, 09:46 UTC | 91% |
| 26 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 91% |
| 26 Oct, 08:30 UTC | 93% |
| 26 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 94% |
| 26 Oct, 07:24 UTC | 94% |
| 26 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 94% |
| 26 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 94% |
| 26 Oct, 05:36 UTC | 94% |
| 26 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Oct, 04:50 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Oct, 04:04 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 96% |
| 26 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 96% |
| 26 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 96% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 95% |
| 24 Oct, 11:05 UTC | 85% |
| 24 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 85% |
| 24 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 86% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 79% |
| 23 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 86% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 85% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 85% |
| 22 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 83% |
| 22 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 84% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if at least one full calendar day passes between the market's creation and November 7 with no curfew in effect anywhere in Paris, according to Paris time. A curfew is defined as an official governmental order prohibiting the general population from being in public spaces, issued by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture, or a French national authority.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 96%
- No 4%
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