Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?
Implied probability 6%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$199k
Liquidity$78k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 15 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Oct, 07:30 UTC | 7% |
| 14 Oct, 07:23 UTC | 7% |
| 14 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Oct, 06:09 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Oct, 00:07 UTC | 7% |
| 13 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 7% |
| 13 Oct, 16:26 UTC | 8% |
| 13 Oct, 12:30 UTC | 8% |
| 13 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 7% |
| 13 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 8% |
| 13 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 7% |
| 13 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 7% |
| 12 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 8% |
| 12 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 10% |
| 12 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 13% |
| 12 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 9% |
| 12 Oct, 13:02 UTC | 8% |
| 12 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 8% |
| 12 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 8% |
| 11 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 8% |
| 11 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 8% |
| 11 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 9% |
| 11 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 10% |
| 11 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 9% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 11% |
| 11 Oct, 18:17 UTC | 13% |
| 11 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 11% |
| 11 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 5% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Saudi Arabian airspace is officially closed by October 31 at 11:59 PM ET due to a general suspension of commercial flights. A qualifying closure requires an official Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) or order from the responsible aviation authority that prohibits commercial traffic, excluding weather, technical failures, or pre-planned closures.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 95%
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