Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
The market favoured Yes at 75% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$39k
Total volume$81k
Liquidity$41k
Resolved1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 77% |
| 26 Oct, 22:22 UTC | 68% |
| 26 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 75% |
| 26 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 74% |
| 26 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 75% |
| 26 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 81% |
| 26 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 76% |
| 26 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Oct, 18:25 UTC | 76% |
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →