Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Implied probability 90%−1
24-hour volume$590
Total volume$18k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves18 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 90% |
| 5 Nov, 11:34 UTC | 90% |
| 5 Nov, 10:24 UTC | 89% |
| 5 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 89% |
| 5 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 89% |
| 5 Nov, 02:54 UTC | 90% |
| 5 Nov, 01:35 UTC | 91% |
| 5 Nov, 01:28 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Nov, 23:18 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 14:01 UTC | 88% |
| 1 Nov, 23:43 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 13:32 UTC | 84% |
| 1 Nov, 12:48 UTC | 84% |
| 1 Nov, 11:48 UTC | 83% |
| 1 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 82% |
| 1 Nov, 06:22 UTC | 82% |
| 1 Nov, 05:47 UTC | 81% |
| 31 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 80% |
| 31 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 81% |
| 31 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 80% |
| 31 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 79% |
| 31 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 79% |
| 31 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 79% |
| 31 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 79% |
| 30 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 79% |
| 30 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 09:02 UTC | 75% |
| 30 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 79% |
| 30 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 77% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Bank of Japan raises the uncollateralized overnight call rate by exactly 25 basis points during its December 17-18, 2026 meeting. The No outcome applies if the rate remains unchanged or changes by any other amount.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 90%
- No 11%
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