Spread: Cowboys (-9.5)
The market favoured Buccaneers at 54% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: −50 points at 03:47 UTC, after SI Feed: Biggest Takeaways From Cowboys' Pathetic Week 5 Loss to Buccaneers — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 9 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 0% |
| 8 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 51% |
| 8 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 50% |
| 8 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 49% |
| 7 Oct, 10:36 UTC | 47% |
| 6 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 46% |
| 6 Oct, 04:16 UTC | 47% |
| 6 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 46% |
| 6 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 48% |
| 5 Oct, 00:42 UTC | 52% |
What counts
The Cowboys outcome resolves if they win by 10 or more points in the scheduled game on October 8 at 8:15 PM ET. The Buccaneers outcome resolves if the Cowboys win by fewer than 10 points, lose, or tie. Readers often mistake the margin requirement, thinking a win of exactly 9 points counts for the Cowboys when it actually triggers the Buccaneers outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Cowboys 0%
- Buccaneers 100%
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