Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$2.0M
Total volume$5.8M
Liquidity$1.6M
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 23:31 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 24% |
| 3 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 23% |
| 3 Nov, 18:21 UTC | 22% |
| 3 Nov, 17:33 UTC | 23% |
| 3 Nov, 17:03 UTC | 22% |
| 3 Nov, 16:12 UTC | 21% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 20% |
| 3 Nov, 13:55 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 03:47 UTC | 20% |
| 3 Nov, 02:08 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Nov, 18:49 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Nov, 14:49 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Nov, 12:42 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Nov, 11:57 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Nov, 11:22 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Nov, 09:52 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Nov, 07:47 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Nov, 02:30 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Nov, 02:01 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Nov, 20:43 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Nov, 19:45 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Nov, 17:05 UTC | 25% |
| 1 Nov, 16:51 UTC | 25% |
| 1 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 19% |
| 1 Nov, 07:11 UTC | 20% |
| 31 Oct, 22:35 UTC | 21% |
| 31 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 19% |
| 31 Oct, 17:06 UTC | 20% |
| 31 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 19% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 19% |
| 31 Oct, 15:52 UTC | 19% |
| 31 Oct, 15:15 UTC | 20% |
| 31 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 19% |
| 31 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 20% |
| 31 Oct, 13:01 UTC | 21% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 20% |
| 31 Oct, 10:30 UTC | 21% |
| 31 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 20% |
| 31 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 24% |
| 31 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 23% |
| 31 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 26% |
| 31 Oct, 04:21 UTC | 26% |
| 31 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 24% |
| 31 Oct, 00:02 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 24% |
| 30 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Oct, 10:20 UTC | 24% |
| 30 Oct, 09:37 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 24% |
| 30 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 24% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if a Republican wins the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The No outcome applies if a Democrat or independent candidate wins. Readers often mistake the deadline for resolution; the market waits until the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or until official certification occurs if they do not agree.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →