Will Mexico win on 2026-09-26?
The market favoured No at 64% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$342k
Total volume$365k
Liquidity$223k
Resolved27 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 05:30 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 02:14 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Sept, 00:42 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Sept, 21:49 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 20:20 UTC | 35% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 36% |
| 26 Sept, 14:10 UTC | 35% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 36% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 37% |
| 25 Sept, 21:48 UTC | 37% |
| 25 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 38% |
| 24 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 39% |
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Mexico wins within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time on September 26, 2026. It resolves to "No" if Mexico does not win, including ties or losses, and remains open if the game is postponed. Readers often mistake the final result after extra time or penalties for the deciding factor, but only the score at the end of regular play counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →