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Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Implied probability 69%+17
24-hour volume$10k
Total volume$112k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves1 Jan 2027

Why it moved: +7 points at 23:11 UTC, after Deadline: Resurgent Box Office Drives AMC Theatres’ Record Q3: CEO Says Chain Has Finally Recovered — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
0%50%100%69%29 Oct, 19:29 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now69%
5 Nov, 17:35 UTC69%
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30 Oct, 17:41 UTC51%
30 Oct, 17:27 UTC52%
29 Oct, 19:43 UTC54%
29 Oct, 19:29 UTC49%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Spider-Man: Brand New Day finishes second in domestic opening weekend gross among all 2026 releases, based on final three-day figures from The Numbers website. It resolves to No if any other movie takes that second spot or if the ranking changes after initial estimates are finalized.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 69%
  • No 32%

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