Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 4%+1
24-hour volume$404
Total volume$103k
Liquidity$31k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 07:11 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 03:51 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 21:51 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 17:29 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 12:32 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 09:43 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 13:11 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 16:05 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 14:17 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 10:53 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 10:02 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 01:37 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 23:21 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 1% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Ukraine formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized territory by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This recognition must be a public announcement of an official agreement or unilateral pledge, regardless of whether it is part of a broader peace deal or when it takes effect.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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